Making Sense of a United Ireland: Should it happen? How might it happen?

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But he insists he is as “strongly Irish” as someone from Dublin, while having “that sense of belonging to the United Kingdom”.

Gaelic Games, Guinness, Irish rugby, the sash, the King, the Irish language, Ulster Scots – all of these things represent me. That’s not going to change in a united Ireland,” he said. Along with the talk of unification, there are signs that the region’s deep sectarian divisions are starting to heal. Alliance, the party that describes itself as neither nationalist nor unionist, is expected to poll well in the election. Similarly, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), a moderate nationalist party founded by the icon of the Irish peace process, John Hume, is hoping to break new ground. This way of thinking is increasingly popular among Irish civic nationalists, who see a Little Englander–powered Brexit as the foil to an Ireland that embodies the best virtues of twenty-first century liberal democracy.As most readers know, Irish nationalists have fought for centuries for an independent united Ireland, free of its larger and imperialist neighbor. In 1921, that goal was partly achieved by the creation of the Irish Free State, but six counties in the North that could guarantee a sizable majority of those unionists loyal to Britain were retained as Northern Ireland under Protestant unionist rule and part of the UK. Tóibín then cites a unionist who explains his opposition to the 1985 Anglo-Irish agreement on the basis that the Dublin government “suddenly had a say in the affairs of Northern Ireland, but no one in the north could vote to remove the Dublin government” and that this “opposition to arbitrary authority was at the very heart of Protestant identity”. Of course, the considerable irony, which Tóibín misses entirely, is that the London government has a major say in the affairs of Northern Ireland (such as forcing Brexit on a region that voted against it), and nobody in the north can vote to remove them either. Another gesture to unionists that O’Leary calls for is to have a united Ireland rejoin the Commonwealth, to provide a “British dimension” to Irish unification. This is another step that will cause Irish nationalists to choke on their proverbial cornflakes, but his arguments seem sound to me. He points out that the Commonwealth is no longer formally the “British Commonwealth,” that it has far more republics than monarchies and, interestingly, that there is no formal requirement that the British monarch after Charles III will be its “head.” Of course, the Commonwealth also has no legislative, executive or judicial authority over any of its members. Its cultural Catholic population – those who are Catholic or come from a predominantly Catholic family formation – now outnumber cultural Protestants. Since the last quarter of the nineteenth century, such Catholics have mostly voted for nationalist parties with platforms that favour an autonomous or independent and united Ireland. Today, the largest of these parties are Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP).

The Government of Ireland Act of 1920, the instrument of partition enacted by the Westminster parliament, was the most enduring gerrymander of the last century. With some truculence, Ulster unionists accepted a six-county Northern Ireland rather than one consisting of all nine counties of Ulster. Their local leaders had made a strategic decision. In the words of James Craig, Northern Ireland’s first prime minister, they would secure those counties they could control, and thereby create “a new and impregnable Pale,” behind which loyalists could withdraw and regroup to maintain the union with Great Britain.Sinn Féin won the most seats in this year’s local elections but polls show strong support for the boycott among DUP voters. Wallace Thompson, a founding member of the DUP, raised eyebrows this month by declaring Unionism was “probably always in many ways doomed”.

The undergraduate placements would otherwise have been lost to the unpopular budget cuts imposed by London during the DUP’s boycott of Stormont. A ‘yes’ vote - a vote for the EU The likelihood of Irish unity will come as a surprise to many Canadians. It was virtually unthinkable in Ireland itself not so long ago. Two things explain the change. First, Protestants and unionists in Northern Ireland have lost their status as demographic or political majorities. Catholics and nationalists are not yet majorities, but the pivotal voters in a future referendum will be drawn from a middle group outside the traditional unionist and nationalist blocs. Second, that pivotal middle group is shifting toward support for Irish unity because of Brexit, the dramatic and increasing prosperity of the Republic of Ireland and the latter’s embrace of secularism and liberalism over Catholic conservatism. If that strategy was seen to have succeeded, I think that will leave such a bad taste that one couldn’t rule out there would be some factions, which would give vent to their outrage.” Sinn Féin, once the IRA’s mouthpiece and a political outcast, is now ascendant. In May’s assembly election, it overtook the DUP as Northern Ireland’s biggest party, a milestone that makes Michelle O’Neill eligible to be first minister. In the republic it leads the opposition, is surging in popularity and appears poised to lead the next government, a once unthinkable proposition. Sinn Féin leaders welcomed King Charles to Northern Ireland last month with a flawless show of republican respect – yet another milestone – that impressed even some unionists.The answer is yes, of course I would,” the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) declares from Belfast’s deserted Stormont. There have, however, been several unionist surrenders – as well as British betrayals. Ulster unionists parted with their Southern counterparts, who wanted all of Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom, or in the British empire or in the British Commonwealth. Southern unionists would have settled for “dominion status” for the entire island in 1917–18 so that they would have been part of a larger minority rather than the small one they became. They feared an Irish Republic, but they did not want partition. Ulster unionists preferred to leave Southern unionists behind rather than bolster them in a sovereign united Ireland. As retreating generals do, they cut their losses. Unionism as a whole is going to have to change the way it does things and become more centrist in many, many ways,” said Mr Beattie, who admitted that he does not know how long he will remain UUP leader after two disappointing election results. Sinn Féin’s success frightens Unionists Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader, refused to return to Stormont after Sinn Féin, led by Michelle O’Neill, triumphed in Assembly elections in May 2022.

Despite the fact that some of his posters have been defaced, he is getting a positive reception on the doorsteps, and he hopes to make history this week. At a 2017 summit in Brussels, Enda Kenny, the former Irish Taoiseach, secured a commitment that Northern Ireland will automatically rejoin the EU if reunification happens. Perhaps more than any other scholar, O’Leary has thought through the permutations of a vote for and against reunification. Offering a sharp rejoinder to those who believe that a majority in favor of changing Northern Ireland’s status must be overwhelming, he insists that any majority should prevail, even if it is a narrow one, “because the alternative is that a narrow minority should prevail.” This is sage counsel on democratic principles that many on the island should heed. Northern Ireland would follow hundreds of EU rules but gain unique and lucrative dual access to both the UK and European markets. One does not have to believe that all economic growth since the 1980s was a mirage to recognize that tax-dodging strategies adopted by companies like Apple have massively inflated the headline figures for Irish GDP. In 2015, for example, the official figures purported to show GDP growth of 26 percent. Since O’Leary repeatedly cites figures for GDP per capita, his failure to discuss this phenomenon in a serious way leaves a major hole in his argument. Fables of Social DemocracyHe also puts forward a number of suggestions for how to minimize the danger of either unionists or nationalists boycotting a constitutional plebiscite to make it appear illegitimate, and sets out a number of options for constitutional change that the author deems impossible or improbable: confederation, federation, repartition, joint sovereignty between London and Dublin, and Northern Irish independence. Eyeing up the various options, O’Leary proposes two models for reunification that he considers most viable. Meanwhile, younger pro-Union voters are alienated by the staunchly conservative views on issues such as LGBT rights held by some Unionists.